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 LoadSEER
Cities and towns are built to support economic and societal
needs. LoadSEER forecasts growth and assesses risk by using numerous
simple but effective rules that can be inferred from studying the
various parts of these cities and towns, how they interrelate, and
how they are sized relative to one another. Regional and urban influence
rules can then be used to determine what, for example, a “bigger
city than today’s city” would look like, or how big will
downtown be if the population increases by 15% but suburban office
parks on the city’s edges compete for the office market. How
will the mixes of high-rise to mid-rise buildings in the core of
downtown change as the city expands outward at the edges and higher
in the center? What is the impact of an arterial and ring (loop)
highway system on the distribution of industrial activity in the
region (Houston) versus an omnipresent arterial grid street system
(Phoenix) on how a city expands and grows?
The LoadSEER algorithm uses a demand and supply matching approach
to allocate the control totals of land use growth, for any given
year, within the framework of regional influences, local preference
rules and availability limits. LoadSEER is able to efficiently perform
the necessary calculations and analyses down to a 1 acre level of
specificity. Using a state-of-the-art cellular automata sub-algorithm
LoadSEER determines land-use changes on a small area geospatial
grid of cells, each in one of a number of land use density states.
The grid can be in any number dimensions according to land use preferences
and proximity scores. Time is also discrete, and the state of a
cell at time t is a function of the states of a number of cells
(its neighborhood) at time t - 1. Every cell has the same rule for
updating, based on the values in this neighborhood. Each time the
rules are applied to the whole grid a new generation of land use
electric load density is created.
The core algorithms determine where growth will occur by applying
rules about how land uses distribute themselves in a city or region.
These rules have been developed into a dependable set of forecasting
rules, established over many years within the utility industry,
urban planning, and other infrastructure planning (water, highways,
schools and municipal services, and environmental). There are three
basic categories of rules: regional influence rules, local preference
rules, and land availability rules. They are combined and balanced
by the LoadSEER algorithm to project future growth and electric
load for a given scenario. Furthermore, LoadSEER is designed to
be a flexible forecasting tool which will run multiple user inputted
scenarios across space and time.
Highlights
- Simulates change in land use with a state-of-the-art cellular
automata sub-algorithm.
- Allocates new growth by land use classes and priorities.
- Produces forecast maps with electric load by customer classes.
- Provides flexible modeling in order to run multiple scenarios
across space and time.
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